Twins at Guardians
MIN4–
CLE13Last play · Kody Clemens strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
MIN 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 9 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brayan Rocchio homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Travis Bazzana scores. (inning 1) — +17% Guardians
8Victor Caratini doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Josh Bell scores.4–13
7Chase DeLauter doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Petey Halpin scores. Kyle Manzardo scores.3–13
7Patrick Bailey homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.3–11
7Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Alan Roden scores.3–10
6Chase DeLauter singles on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Steven Kwan scores. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.2–10
5Patrick Bailey singles on a line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Daniel Schneemann scores.2–9
4Petey Halpin homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–8
3Rhys Hoskins homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.2–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.