Twins at Guardians
Last play · Daniel Schneemann lines out to second baseman Kody Clemens.
Win probability
Guardians0%
MIN 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 7 – 4 CLE
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Luke Keaschall scores. Alex Jackson scores. (inning 4) — -29% Twins
9Kyle Manzardo singles on a line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Brayan Rocchio scores.10–6
8Kyle Manzardo homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.10–5
8Josh Bell singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. Alex Jackson scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.10–4
8Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to center fielder Petey Halpin. Alan Roden scores. Luke Keaschall scores. Alex Jackson to 2nd.9–4
4José Ramírez grounds into a force out, second baseman Kody Clemens to shortstop Brooks Lee. Petey Halpin scores. Steven Kwan out at 2nd. José Ramírez to 1st.7–4
4Brooks Lee homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Luke Keaschall scores. Alex Jackson scores.7–3
4Alex Jackson singles on a ground ball to third baseman José Ramírez. Alan Roden scores. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.4–3
3Josh Bell grounds out, second baseman Travis Bazzana to first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Trevor Larnach scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
