D-backs at Guardians
AZ12–
CLE8Last play · Patrick Bailey grounds out, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Guardians0%
AZ 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 2 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+152 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Geraldo Perdomo homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — -26% D-backs
9Petey Halpin grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Kyle Manzardo scores.12–8
9Geraldo Perdomo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Petey Halpin. James McCann scores. Jorge Barrosa scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.12–7
8Guardians challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was overturned: Steven Kwan singles on a line drive to left fielder Tim Tawa. Petey Halpin scores. Travis Bazzana scores. Steven Kwan to 2nd.10–7
8Patrick Bailey out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Angel Martínez scores.10–5
8Petey Halpin singles on a line drive to left fielder Tim Tawa. Kyle Manzardo scores. Angel Martínez to 2nd.10–4
8Chase DeLauter homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.10–3
8Nolan Arenado homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.10–2
7Corbin Carroll homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. James McCann scores. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.9–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.