D-backs at Guardians
Last play · Adrian Del Castillo grounds out to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.
Win probability
Guardians100%
AZ 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 5 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -191
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Patrick Bailey homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — +15% Guardians
5Kyle Manzardo singles on a line drive to center fielder Tim Tawa. Chase DeLauter scores. Travis Bazzana to 3rd.0–5
5Chase DeLauter doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez scores.0–4
3Chase DeLauter singles on a line drive to center fielder Tim Tawa. Petey Halpin scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.0–2
3Patrick Bailey homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
