Mets at Guardians
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe flies out to left fielder A.J. Ewing.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYM 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 2 CLE
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Torrens homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Marcus Semien scores. Jared Young scores. (inning 2) — -33% Mets
8Carson Benge homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
5Travis Bazzana singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Chase DeLauter scores. Angel Martínez to 3rd.5–2
4Luis Torrens singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Marcus Semien scores.5–1
3Angel Martínez doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Jo Adell scores. Chase DeLauter to 3rd.4–1
3Bo Bichette homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
2Luis Torrens homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Marcus Semien scores. Jared Young scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
