Mets at Guardians
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe grounds out to first baseman Jared Young.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYM 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 3 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · A.J. Ewing reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Jared Young scores. Jorge Polanco to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% Mets
10Bo Bichette singles on a line drive to right fielder Jo Adell. Francisco Lindor scores. Bo Bichette out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jo Adell to shortstop Brayan Rocchio.6–5
9A.J. Ewing reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Jared Young scores. Jorge Polanco to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd.5–5
7Angel Genao singles on a line drive to left fielder Cristian Pache. Angel Martínez scores. Patrick Bailey to 2nd.4–5
7Patrick Bailey singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Brayan Rocchio scores. Angel Martínez to 3rd.4–4
6Carson Benge homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.4–3
5Nathaniel Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Angel Genao scores. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter to 3rd.3–3
4Travis Bazzana singles on a line drive to left fielder Brett Baty. Jo Adell scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 3rd.3–1
4Jared Young doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jo Adell. Carson Benge scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
