Mets at Guardians
NYM13–
CLE6Last play · Angel Martínez pops out to catcher Luis Torrens in foul territory.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYM 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 5 CLE
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (13) on a line drive to right field. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez scores. (inning 5) — +33% Guardians
9Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Angel Genao scores.13–6
8Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to third baseman José Ramírez. Marcus Semien scores. Jared Young to 3rd. Luis Torrens to 2nd.13–5
8Luis Torrens walks. Francisco Alvarez scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd. Jared Young to 2nd.12–5
8Jared Young walks. Carson Benge scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd.11–5
8Francisco Alvarez doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Angel Martínez. Luis Robert Jr. scores. Carson Benge to 3rd.10–5
7Francisco Lindor homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Jared Young scores. Luis Torrens scores.9–5
5Nathaniel Lowe homers (13) on a line drive to right field. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez scores.6–5
5Jared Young singles on a ground ball to left fielder Angel Martínez. Francisco Alvarez scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.