Padres at Guardians
Last play · Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
SD 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 4 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jo Adell doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. José Ramírez scores. (inning 1) — +14% Guardians
7Jo Adell doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Hays.1–6
5José Ramírez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Steven Kwan scores.1–4
5Steven Kwan doubles (15) on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Petey Halpin scores.1–3
2Patrick Bailey doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Angel Genao scores.1–2
1Jo Adell doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. José Ramírez scores.1–1
1Manny Machado grounds into a double play, third baseman José Ramírez to second baseman Travis Bazzana to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd. Manny Machado out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
