Padres at Guardians
Last play · Angel Martínez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Guardians0%
SD 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 3 CLE
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Campusano doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd. (inning 5) — -28% Padres
8Jo Adell strikes out swinging.7–5
7Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Angel Martínez. Jackson Merrill scores.7–4
7Luis Campusano doubles (11) on a fly ball to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.6–4
6Petey Halpin doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Angel Genao scores.5–4
5Luis Campusano doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd.5–3
5Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
4Xander Bogaerts homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Jackson Merrill scores.2–3
3Nathaniel Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter to 3rd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
