Padres at Guardians
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians0%
SD 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 0 CLE
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Rengifo homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — -15% Padres
9Jake Cronenworth homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.5–0
8Jase Bowen homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.4–0
4Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Steven Kwan. Jackson Merrill scores.3–0
2Gavin Sheets homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
2Luis Rengifo homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
