Royals at Guardians
Last play · Angel Genao grounds out softly, pitcher Steven Cruz to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Guardians0%
KC 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 0 CLE
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez grounds out, shortstop Brayan Rocchio to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 5) — -16% Royals
9Carter Jensen homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–0
5Salvador Perez grounds out, shortstop Brayan Rocchio to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
