Giants at Guardians
Last play · Patrick Bailey called out on strikes.
Win probability
Guardians0%
SF 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 0 CLE
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+206 / -223
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drew Gilbert strikes out swinging. (inning 9) — -14% Giants
4Victor Bericoto singles on a ground ball to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Rafael Devers scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
