Royals at Guardians
Last play · Carter Jensen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
KC 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 9 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+162 / -174
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Jo Adell scores. (inning 1) — +17% Guardians
6Jo Adell singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Petey Halpin scores. José Ramírez to 2nd.1–11
6José Ramírez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Steven Kwan scores. Petey Halpin to 2nd.1–10
4José Ramírez homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Chase DeLauter scores.1–9
4Chase DeLauter doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Steven Kwan scores.1–7
3Nathaniel Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. José Ramírez scores.1–6
3Jo Adell doubles (22) on a line drive to left fielder John Rave. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez to 3rd.1–5
1Nathaniel Lowe homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Jo Adell scores.1–3
1José Ramírez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Chase DeLauter scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
