Royals at Guardians
Last play · Angel Genao grounds out, first baseman Salvador Perez to pitcher Alex Lange.
Win probability
Guardians0%
KC 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 2 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -159
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Collins doubles (23) on a ground ball to left fielder Angel Martínez. Nick Loftin scores. Tyler Tolbert scores. (inning 5) — -25% Royals
9Angel Martínez singles on a line drive to center fielder John Rave. José Ramírez scores.8–3
8Josh Rojas homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. John Rave scores.8–2
6Josh Rojas singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Nick Loftin scores. John Rave scores. Isaac Collins to 2nd.6–2
6John Rave reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman José Ramírez. Jac Caglianone scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. Nick Loftin to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman José Ramírez.4–2
6Salvador Perez doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd.3–2
5Isaac Collins doubles (23) on a ground ball to left fielder Angel Martínez. Nick Loftin scores. Tyler Tolbert scores.2–2
2Angel Martínez homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Jo Adell scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
