Blue Jays at Guardians
Last play · Nathan Lukes pops out to third baseman José Ramírez.
Win probability
Guardians100%
TOR 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 2 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Patrick Bailey homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Angel Martínez scores. (inning 5) — +30% Guardians
8Angel Martínez homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Petey Halpin scores.1–6
7Angel Genao homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Angel Martínez scores.1–4
5Patrick Bailey homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Angel Martínez scores.1–2
5Brett Bateman grounds out, pitcher Gavin Williams to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
