Padres at Rockies
Last play · Hunter Goodman flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Rockies0%
SD 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 0 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
12
opened 11.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado walks. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd. (inning 6) — -14% Padres
6Manny Machado walks. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
