Padres at Rockies
SD10–
COL8Last play · Ezequiel Tovar grounds into a double play, third baseman Manny Machado to second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Troy Johnston out at 2nd. Ezequiel Tovar out at 1st.
Win probability
Rockies0%
SD 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 6 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Xander Bogaerts scores. Bryce Johnson scores. (inning 9) — -78% Padres
9Gavin Sheets homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Xander Bogaerts scores. Bryce Johnson scores.10–8
9Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.7–8
9Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.6–8
8Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.5–8
7Troy Johnston singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tyler Freeman scores.4–8
6Mickey Moniak homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–7
5Xander Bogaerts homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.4–6
4Tyler Freeman out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Matt Waldron to first baseman Ty France. Edouard Julien scores. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.3–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.