Padres at Rockies
Last play · Ramón Laureano grounds out, pitcher Antonio Senzatela to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Rockies100%
SD 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 5 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willi Castro singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Troy Johnston scores. (inning 2) — +15% Rockies
9Jake Cronenworth grounds out, third baseman Kyle Karros to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Luis Campusano scores.3–8
8Hunter Goodman homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.2–8
7Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kyle Karros scores. Willi Castro to 2nd.2–7
7Luis Campusano homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.2–6
6TJ Rumfield doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Mickey Moniak scores.1–6
4TJ Rumfield singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Hunter Goodman scores.1–5
2Tyler Freeman singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Edouard Julien scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.1–4
2Mickey Moniak doubles (4) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jake McCarthy scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
