Braves at Rockies
Last play · Mickey Moniak grounds out, shortstop Kyle Farmer to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Rockies0%
ATL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 6 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-219 / +179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Farmer scores. (inning 9) — -41% Braves
9Michael Harris II homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Farmer scores.8–6
8Austin Riley out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Mauricio Dubón scores.6–6
8Mauricio Dubón triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson scores.5–6
7Jonah Heim grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Austin Riley scores.2–6
4Matt Olson homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–6
2Mickey Moniak homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.0–6
1Willi Castro grounds out to first baseman Matt Olson. TJ Rumfield scores. Tyler Freeman scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Matt Olson.0–5
1Tyler Freeman singles on a soft bunt ground ball to first baseman Matt Olson. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
