Braves at Rockies
Last play · Brett Sullivan grounds into a double play, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Jorge Mateo to first baseman Matt Olson. Willi Castro out at 2nd. Brett Sullivan out at 1st.
Win probability
Rockies0%
ATL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 8 – 1 COL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. (inning 1) — -21% Braves
9Matt Olson homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.9–1
5Austin Riley homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Michael Harris II scores.8–1
4Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jordan Beck. Eli White scores.6–1
4Drake Baldwin doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Jorge Mateo scores. Eli White to 3rd.5–1
4Eli White singles on a soft bunt ground ball to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Austin Riley scores. Jorge Mateo to 2nd.4–1
3Jordan Beck doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Kyle Karros scores. Jordan Beck to 3rd.3–1
2Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jorge Mateo scores.3–0
1Drake Baldwin homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
