Braves at Rockies
ATL11–
COL6Last play · Brett Sullivan lines out sharply to center fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Rockies0%
ATL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 6 – 5 COL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mickey Moniak homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Jake McCarthy scores. (inning 4) — +29% Rockies
9Jorge Mateo singles on a fly ball to second baseman Edouard Julien. Jonah Heim scores.11–6
9Jonah Heim doubles (4) on a fly ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Ozzie Albies scores. Eli White scores.10–6
8Mickey Moniak homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.8–6
6Matt Olson doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Ozzie Albies scores.8–5
6Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Mike Yastrzemski scores.7–5
5Ezequiel Tovar out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mauricio Dubón. Troy Johnston scores.6–5
5Jonah Heim out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Matt Olson scores.6–4
5Eli White challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Eli White walks. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 3rd. Austin Riley to 2nd.5–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.