Mets at Rockies
Last play · Troy Johnston strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
NYM 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 0 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — -22% Mets
7Kyle Karros singles on a line drive to center fielder Carson Benge. Jordan Beck scores.4–2
7Jordan Beck triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Carson Benge. Willi Castro scores.4–1
6Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Luis Torrens scores. Juan Soto scores.4–0
6Luis Torrens doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Francisco Alvarez scores.2–0
6Carson Benge homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
