Mets at Rockies
Last play · Vidal Bruján pops out softly to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.
Win probability
Rockies100%
NYM 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 1 COL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Jake McCarthy hits a grand slam (2) to right field. Brenton Doyle scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Willi Castro scores. (inning 8) — +39% Rockies
8Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Jake McCarthy hits a grand slam (2) to right field. Brenton Doyle scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Willi Castro scores.2–6
6Jake McCarthy doubles (6) on a fly ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.2–2
4Willi Castro singles on a line drive to right fielder Austin Slater. Tyler Freeman scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.2–1
2Tyrone Taylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Marcus Semien scores. Tyrone Taylor out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Mickey Moniak to third baseman Kyle Karros to second baseman Edouard Julien.2–0
2Andy Ibáñez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Austin Slater scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
