Mets at Rockies
Last play · Kyle Karros called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rockies0%
NYM 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 0 COL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien scores. (inning 4) — -21% Mets
9Tyler Freeman hit by pitch. Mickey Moniak scores. Hunter Goodman to 3rd. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.10–5
9Marcus Semien homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Brett Baty scores.10–4
6Jake McCarthy homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Troy Johnston scores.8–4
6Troy Johnston doubles (9) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Tyler Freeman scores.8–2
6TJ Rumfield homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.8–1
6Tyrone Taylor grounds into a force out, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to second baseman Edouard Julien. Luis Torrens scores. Bo Bichette out at 2nd. Tyrone Taylor advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman Edouard Julien.8–0
6Bo Bichette singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Francisco Alvarez scores. Luis Torrens to 3rd.7–0
6Juan Soto out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Carson Benge scores.6–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
