D-backs at Rockies
Last play · TJ Rumfield strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
AZ 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 7 – 1 COL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 3rd. (inning 1) — -16% D-backs
7Gabriel Moreno doubles (7) on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Ildemaro Vargas scores.9–1
7Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.8–1
4Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.7–1
1Hunter Goodman homers (11) on a line drive to left field.6–1
1Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a fly ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Gabriel Moreno scores. Jose Fernandez scores.6–0
1Jose Fernandez doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd.4–0
1Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 3rd.3–0
1Ildemaro Vargas singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Corbin Carroll scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
