D-backs at Rockies
AZ8–
COL6Last play · Troy Johnston flies out to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
Win probability
Rockies0%
AZ 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 7 – 2 COL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd. (inning 3) — -14% D-backs
8Brett Sullivan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jake McCarthy scores.8–6
8Kyle Karros reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Nolan Arenado. Troy Johnston scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd. Fielding error by third baseman Nolan Arenado.8–5
8Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. TJ Rumfield scores. Troy Johnston to 2nd.8–4
8Willi Castro out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Hunter Goodman scores.8–3
6Corbin Carroll homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.8–2
5Jose Fernandez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kyle Karros. Gabriel Moreno scores.7–2
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.6–2
4Willi Castro hits a ground-rule double (6) on a fly ball to left-center field. Troy Johnston scores.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.