Rangers at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy grounds out, second baseman Justin Foscue to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rockies0%
TEX 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 4 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 11 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Jung singles on a ground ball to left fielder Troy Johnston. Justin Foscue scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd. (inning 9) — -71% Rangers
9Josh Jung singles on a ground ball to left fielder Troy Johnston. Justin Foscue scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd.5–4
5Troy Johnston singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Helman. Tyler Freeman scores.3–4
5Tyler Freeman singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Helman. Jake McCarthy scores.3–3
4Kyle Karros challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Kyle Karros walks. Troy Johnston scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 3rd. Edouard Julien to 2nd.3–2
4Jake Burger homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
4Ezequiel Duran homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Josh Jung scores.2–1
1TJ Rumfield singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jake McCarthy scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
