Giants at Rockies
Last play · Ezequiel Tovar homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Willi Castro scores.
Win probability
Rockies100%
SF 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 1 COL
Giants led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Hunter Goodman homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Jake McCarthy scores. Tyler Freeman scores. (inning 9) — +56% Rockies
9Ezequiel Tovar homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Willi Castro scores.6–8
9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Hunter Goodman homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Jake McCarthy scores. Tyler Freeman scores.6–6
9Matt Chapman singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Rafael Devers scores.6–3
9Rafael Devers triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman, deflected by center fielder Jake McCarthy. Luis Arraez scores.5–3
8Ezequiel Tovar homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Troy Johnston scores.4–3
8Bryce Eldridge out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Jung Hoo Lee scores.4–1
4Harrison Bader singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Bryce Eldridge to 3rd.3–1
4Daniel Susac out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Matt Chapman scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
