Brewers at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy pops out to catcher William Contreras in foul territory.
Win probability
Rockies0%
MIL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 1 COL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-188 / +154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Karros doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Edouard Julien scores. (inning 5) — +15% Rockies
8Jake Bauers homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.7–1
8Brice Turang homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.6–1
7Sal Frelick reaches on a fielding error by first baseman TJ Rumfield. Jake Bauers scores. Blake Perkins scores.5–1
7William Contreras homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
5Kyle Karros doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Edouard Julien scores.2–1
2David Hamilton homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
1Brice Turang homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
