Brewers at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Rockies0%
MIL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 3 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 10.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-313 / +248
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Christian Yelich scores. Brice Turang scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd. (inning 10) — -44% Brewers
10Sterlin Thompson singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Troy Johnston scores. Willi Castro scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 2nd.9–7
10Sal Frelick singles on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.9–5
10Garrett Mitchell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Troy Johnston. Gary Sánchez scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd.8–5
10Jake Bauers doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Christian Yelich scores. Brice Turang scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd.7–5
9Hunter Goodman out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Sal Frelick. Braxton Fulford scores. Tyler Freeman to 3rd.5–5
9Chad Stevens walks. Sterlin Thompson scores. Braxton Fulford to 3rd. Tyler Freeman to 2nd.5–4
9Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Jake Bauers scores. Sal Frelick scores.5–3
9Sal Frelick doubles (8) on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Blake Perkins scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
