Brewers at Rockies
MIL12–
COL4Last play · Jake McCarthy strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
MIL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 3 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-188 / +154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gary Sánchez homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Andrew Vaughn scores. (inning 6) — -31% Brewers
9Hunter Goodman homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.12–4
9Luis Rengifo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Sterlin Thompson. Garrett Mitchell scores.12–3
9Garrett Mitchell triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Andrew Vaughn scores. Gary Sánchez scores.11–3
9Gary Sánchez doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Sterlin Thompson. William Contreras scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd.9–3
6William Contreras grounds out, third baseman Kyle Karros to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Joey Ortiz scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.8–3
6Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Luis Rengifo scores. Blake Perkins scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd.7–3
6Joey Ortiz walks. Garrett Mitchell scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd. Blake Perkins to 2nd.5–3
6Gary Sánchez homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Andrew Vaughn scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.