Cubs at Rockies
Last play · Pedro Ramírez grounds out, first baseman TJ Rumfield to pitcher Jaden Hill.
Win probability
Rockies100%
CHC 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 7 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
12
opened 12
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Goodman homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. TJ Rumfield scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rockies
6Seiya Suzuki grounds out, third baseman Kyle Karros to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Alex Bregman scores.3–7
6Michael Busch homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.2–7
3Edouard Julien singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Hunter Goodman scores. Troy Johnston scores. Kyle Karros to 2nd.1–7
3Alex Bregman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Dansby Swanson scores.1–5
2Jake McCarthy singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Edouard Julien scores.0–5
2Edouard Julien doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Kyle Karros scores.0–4
2Ezequiel Tovar homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
1Hunter Goodman homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. TJ Rumfield scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
