Cubs at Rockies
Last play · Hunter Goodman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
CHC 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 6 – 2 COL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-168 / +139
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki hits a grand slam (10) to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Michael Busch scores. Ian Happ scores. (inning 4) — -47% Cubs
9Brett Sullivan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.9–3
8Carson Kelly homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.9–2
7Alex Bregman homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.8–2
5Ian Happ out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Sterlin Thompson. Alex Bregman scores.6–2
5Michael Busch singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Dansby Swanson scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.5–2
4Cole Carrigg homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
4Seiya Suzuki hits a grand slam (10) to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Michael Busch scores. Ian Happ scores.4–1
3Brett Sullivan homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
