Pirates at Rockies
PIT3–
COL4Last play · Pirates challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Pirates challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Jared Triolo grounds into a double play, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to second baseman Willi Castro to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Endy Rodríguez out at 2nd. Jared Triolo out at 1st.
Win probability
Rockies100%
PIT 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-225 / +183
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Braxton Fulford doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Tyler Freeman scores. Cole Carrigg scores. (inning 8) — +61% Rockies
8Braxton Fulford doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Tyler Freeman scores. Cole Carrigg scores.3–4
8Nick Gonzales triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Spencer Horwitz scores.3–2
8Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jared Triolo scores.2–2
8Jared Triolo doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.1–2
4TJ Rumfield homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
3Willi Castro doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Kyle Karros to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.