Red Sox at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy triples (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. TJ Rumfield scores. Hunter Goodman scores. Cole Carrigg scores.
Win probability
Rockies100%
BOS 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 0 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-167 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy triples (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. TJ Rumfield scores. Hunter Goodman scores. Cole Carrigg scores. (inning 9) — +62% Rockies
9Jake McCarthy triples (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. TJ Rumfield scores. Hunter Goodman scores. Cole Carrigg scores.2–3
6Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Willson Contreras scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd.2–0
6Willson Contreras doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
