Pirates at Rockies
Last play · Willi Castro grounds into a double play, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Jake McCarthy out at 2nd. Willi Castro out at 1st.
Win probability
Rockies0%
PIT 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 1 COL
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Gonzales homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 4) — -26% Pirates
9Jake McCarthy singles on a soft ground ball to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Kyle Karros scores. Throwing error by second baseman Brandon Lowe.8–6
9Kyle Karros doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Callihan. Braxton Fulford scores.8–5
8TJ Rumfield homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake McCarthy scores. Willi Castro scores.8–4
7Bryan Reynolds homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Horwitz scores. Brandon Lowe scores.8–1
6Jake Mangum doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Tyler Callihan scores.5–1
6Tyler Callihan singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Nick Gonzales scores. Endy Rodríguez out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Tyler Freeman to third baseman Kyle Karros.4–1
5Jared Triolo doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Jake Mangum scores.3–1
4Nick Gonzales homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
