Pirates at Rockies
Last play · Jake Mangum grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Kyle Karros. Billy Cook out at 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd. Jake Mangum to 1st.
Win probability
Rockies100%
PIT 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 2 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy hits an inside-the-park home run (5) on a line drive to right-center field. (inning 1) — +17% Rockies
3TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jake McCarthy scores.1–2
1Jake McCarthy hits an inside-the-park home run (5) on a line drive to right-center field.1–1
1Spencer Horwitz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
