Red Sox at Rockies
BOS6–
COL8Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies100%
BOS 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 6 – 3 COL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-164 / +136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Freeman out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Willson Contreras to second baseman Andruw Monasterio. Mickey Moniak scores. Willi Castro to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Rockies
8Cole Carrigg doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Willi Castro scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd.6–8
8Tyler Freeman out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Willson Contreras to second baseman Andruw Monasterio. Mickey Moniak scores. Willi Castro to 2nd.6–7
7Troy Johnston singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Cole Carrigg scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.6–6
7Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Hunter Goodman scores. Cole Carrigg to 3rd.6–5
7Cole Carrigg singles on a line drive to left fielder Nate Eaton. Tyler Freeman scores. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.6–4
5Anthony Seigler doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Marcelo Mayer scores.6–3
4Tyler Freeman singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Kyle Karros scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.5–3
4Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Connor Wong scores. Nate Eaton to 2nd.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.