Red Sox at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Rockies0%
BOS 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 1 COL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-164 / +136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — -18% Red Sox
9Ezequiel Tovar homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
6Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Nate Eaton scores.5–1
6Nate Eaton doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Anthony Seigler scores.4–1
5Wilyer Abreu homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
2Willi Castro homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Nate Eaton singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Andruw Monasterio scores. Connor Wong out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Mickey Moniak to third baseman Willi Castro to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.2–0
1Wilyer Abreu triples (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Nate Eaton scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
