Marlins at Rockies
Last play · TJ Rumfield grounds out to first baseman Kyle Stowers.
Win probability
Rockies0%
MIA 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 5 COL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-141 / +117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Griffin Conine homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Xavier Edwards scores. Kyle Stowers scores. (inning 5) — -41% Marlins
9Mickey Moniak grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Kyle Stowers. Edouard Julien scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.10–7
7Hunter Goodman homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field.10–6
7Joe Mack singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kyle Karros. Javier Sanoja scores.10–5
7Javier Sanoja triples (1) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Troy Johnston. Owen Caissie scores. Kyle Stowers scores. Griffin Conine scores.9–5
5Griffin Conine homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Xavier Edwards scores. Kyle Stowers scores.6–5
5Otto Lopez homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.3–5
3Kyle Karros doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Esteury Ruiz. Cole Carrigg scores. Troy Johnston scores.2–5
2Jake McCarthy doubles (15) on a fly ball to left fielder Esteury Ruiz. Cole Carrigg scores. Kyle Karros scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
