Marlins at Rockies
Last play · Mickey Moniak strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
MIA 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 5 – 1 COL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Javier Sanoja homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Xavier Edwards scores. Owen Caissie scores. (inning 3) — -26% Marlins
9Ezequiel Tovar doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Griffin Conine. Kyle Karros scores.14–3
9Kyle Stowers doubles (16) on a fly ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Leo Jiménez scores.14–2
8Owen Caissie homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Griffin Conine scores. Xavier Edwards scores.13–2
7Marlins challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Jake McCarthy grounds out, first baseman Liam Hicks to pitcher Zach Brzykcy. Edouard Julien scores. Kyle Karros to 3rd.10–2
7Joe Mack homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores.10–1
6Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Kyle Stowers scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.8–1
6Griffin Conine singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Liam Hicks scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd.7–1
6Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Leo Jiménez scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
