Marlins at Rockies
Last play · Xavier Edwards lines out to right fielder Tyler Freeman.
Win probability
Rockies100%
MIA 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 5 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 12 ↑
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mickey Moniak triples (3) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Kyle Stowers. Kyle Karros scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores. (inning 5) — +30% Rockies
7Kyle Karros homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.3–6
7Joe Mack hits an inside-the-park home run (6) on a sharp fly ball to right-center field.3–5
5Hunter Goodman homers (27) on a fly ball to left center field. Mickey Moniak scores.2–5
5Mickey Moniak triples (3) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Kyle Stowers. Kyle Karros scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores.2–3
4Javier Sanoja triples (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Liam Hicks scores. Heriberto Hernández scores.2–1
1Mickey Moniak homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
