Marlins at Rockies
MIA4–
COL14Last play · Kyle Stowers called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rockies100%
MIA 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 5 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 12 ↑
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Edouard Julien scores. (inning 4) — +29% Rockies
8Brett Sullivan singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Troy Johnston scores. Kyle Karros to 2nd.4–14
8Cole Carrigg out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. TJ Rumfield scores.4–13
6Cole Carrigg out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Griffin Conine. Willi Castro scores.4–12
6Troy Johnston singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Mickey Moniak scores. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.4–11
6TJ Rumfield singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jake McCarthy scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd.4–9
6Mickey Moniak singles on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Edouard Julien scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.4–8
6Jake McCarthy singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Cole Carrigg scores. Brett Sullivan scores. Edouard Julien to 2nd.4–7
4Jake McCarthy homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Edouard Julien scores.4–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.