Reds at Rockies
Last play · Tyler Freeman grounds out softly, catcher Tyler Stephenson to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Rockies0%
CIN 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 1 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 13 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores. (inning 6) — -29% Reds
9Elly De La Cruz homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.7–2
8Spencer Steer hits an inside-the-park home run (16) on a fly ball to right-center field.6–2
7Willi Castro homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
7Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.5–1
6Eugenio Suárez homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
6Spencer Steer homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores.3–1
5Troy Johnston out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Kyle Karros scores.1–1
1Sal Stewart doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
