Reds at Rockies
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Rockies100%
CIN 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 8 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 13 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Cole Carrigg scores. (inning 1) — +9% Rockies
7Nathaniel Lowe singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Noelvi Marte scores. Dane Myers to 3rd.3–10
6TJ Rumfield homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Cole Carrigg scores.2–10
5Jose Trevino homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–8
3Mickey Moniak singles on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Ezequiel Tovar scores.1–8
3Jake McCarthy grounds out, second baseman Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Spencer Steer. Edouard Julien scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 2nd.1–7
3Jose Trevino homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–6
2Willi Castro singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Cole Carrigg scores. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.0–6
2TJ Rumfield singles on a soft ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Mickey Moniak scores. Cole Carrigg to 3rd.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
