Reds at Rockies
Last play · Edouard Julien pops out to first baseman Spencer Steer in foul territory.
Win probability
Rockies0%
CIN 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 9 – 1 COL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-171 / +141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday scores. (inning 1) — -28% Reds
9Willi Castro homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.9–6
8Hunter Goodman homers (30) on a fly ball to center field. Mickey Moniak scores.9–5
6Hunter Goodman homers (29) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake McCarthy scores.9–3
5Tyler Stephenson homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.9–1
2Sal Stewart homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Dane Myers scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.8–1
1Hunter Goodman homers (28) on a fly ball to center field.5–1
1Tyler Stephenson homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Eugenio Suárez scores.5–0
1Nathaniel Lowe homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
