Nationals at Rockies
Last play · Brett Sullivan pops out to third baseman Curtis Mead.
Win probability
Rockies0%
WSH 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 3 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
13
opened 12.5 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willi Castro doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Jake McCarthy scores. Cole Carrigg scores. TJ Rumfield scores. (inning 3) — +38% Rockies
9Daylen Lile triples (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. James Wood scores.7–3
7CJ Abrams homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. Daylen Lile scores.6–3
6Jacob Young homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
3Willi Castro doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Jake McCarthy scores. Cole Carrigg scores. TJ Rumfield scores.3–3
1Andrés Chaparro homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
