Nationals at Rockies
Last play · Jake McCarthy called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rockies0%
WSH 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 0 COL
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Daylen Lile scores. Jorbit Vivas scores. Nasim Nuñez to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Mickey Moniak. (inning 7) — -22% Nationals
8Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Keibert Ruiz scores. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.8–0
7Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. José Tena scores. CJ Abrams scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd. Dylan Crews advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by center fielder Cole Carrigg. Dylan Crews advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by catcher Brett Sullivan.7–0
7Luis García Jr. homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Nasim Nuñez scores.5–0
7Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Daylen Lile scores. Jorbit Vivas scores. Nasim Nuñez to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Mickey Moniak.3–0
5James Wood out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jorbit Vivas scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
