Royals at Rockies
KC6–
COL12Last play · Jac Caglianone lines out sharply to left fielder Jake McCarthy.
Win probability
Rockies100%
KC 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 8 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Goodman homers (32) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Karros scores. TJ Rumfield scores. (inning 3) — +38% Rockies
9Starling Marte grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Carter Jensen scores.6–12
9John Rave homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–12
8Mickey Moniak out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder John Rave. TJ Rumfield scores.4–12
8Hunter Goodman singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Kyle Karros scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd.4–11
8TJ Rumfield singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Jake McCarthy scores. Kyle Karros to 2nd.4–10
7Hunter Goodman homers (33) on a fly ball to left field.4–9
5Willi Castro homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.4–8
4TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to center fielder John Rave. Jake McCarthy scores.4–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.