Royals at Rockies
Last play · Isaac Collins flies out to right fielder Cole Carrigg.
Win probability
Rockies100%
KC 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 3 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Troy Johnston reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Michael Massey. Kyle Karros scores. Troy Johnston to 2nd. (inning 4) — +9% Rockies
6Carter Jensen homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
4Brenton Doyle doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins, deflected by third baseman Josh Rojas. Troy Johnston scores.0–3
4Troy Johnston reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Michael Massey. Kyle Karros scores. Troy Johnston to 2nd.0–2
1TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to right fielder John Rave. Mickey Moniak scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
